Cybiont Capital, LLC

February 20, 2025

Cybiont: Large Bank Commercial Real Estate (ComRe) Update 4Q24

Each quarter we consider trends in loan quality at publicly traded commercial banks. With all eyes on Commercial Real Estate (ComRe), we present the summary stock and flow of underperforming ComRe loans for publicly traded banks with assets over $10 billion (119 commercial banks). Levels and trends in underperforming ComRe loans continue to be most… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
December 20, 2024

Cybiont: Commercial Real Estate 3Q24 Update

Lower mid-curve rates during the third quarter appear to have slowed loan deterioration in the 3rd quarter of 2024 for most banks with the exception of the median large bank where the Underperforming Loan Ratio continues the steady rise that started in 4Q22. In this analysis, we present data summarizing the stock and flow of… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
December 13, 2024

An Historic Opportunity to Renovate Bank Supervision & Regulation

Inherent Conflicts & Irreconcilable Mandates in Bank Supervision Many expect that the Trump presidency will result in meaningful change to the regulation and supervision of banks in the United States.[1] At the same time, there is collective hope that government spending can be subdued. This is an historic opportunity to evaluate the complex, conflicted, and… Continue reading

Bank Regulation & Supervision, Commentary, Industry Analysis
September 19, 2024

A Closer Look at Amerant Bank’s (AMTB’s) Change in Modeled Reserve Adequacy from the Previous Quarter (1Q24)

Cybiont’s 2Q24 report highlights AMTB’s significant shift from over-reserved to under-reserved status, with increased underperforming loans and insufficient provisions indicating ongoing credit quality concerns. Continue reading

Bank Regulation & Supervision, Commentary, Industry Analysis
September 17, 2024

About a quarter of U.S. publicly traded commercial banks have inadequate ACL levels

Cybiont models our expectations for the allowance for credit loss (ACL) levels at publicly traded U.S. banks each quarter. As of 2Q24, our models estimate that about a quarter of U.S. Commercial banks are inadequately reserved under CECL, up from 16% of banks in 1Q24. Most of this change in our view of adequacy occurred… Continue reading

Bank Regulation & Supervision, Commentary, Industry Analysis
April 1, 2024

Negative Carry is a Serious “Drag”

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransico has estimated that all the pandemic-era excess savings has left the system (see the charts below). It would be nice to think that we can simply return to the pre-pandemic management of our funding and liquidity as though nothing happened of lasting effect. That, however, is not the… Continue reading

Bank Regulation & Supervision, Commentary, Industry Analysis
March 22, 2024

A Quick Look at Compass Point’s March 20, 2024, SoFi Report

First, thanks to Giuliano Bologna for providing the analysis at my request. Second, as I’ve stated in other forums, I respect Giuliano’s capabilities as an analyst and the work that he does, and his diligence in extensively showing how he arrives at his conclusions. Few companies disclose everything we would like to know as analysts… Continue reading

Uncategorized
March 7, 2024

Cybiont’s Allen Puwalski Joins Board of Flagstar Bank, NA (NYCB) Reuniting Team OneWest, NA

I’m thrilled to announce that I will be joining the board of Flagstar Bank, NA (NYCB). I am excited to reunite with some of the team that transformed IndyMac FSB into OneWest Bank, NA and later sold to CIT, tripling invested capital in under 5 years. With a solid foundation in place, including enough equity… Continue reading

Uncategorized
February 8, 2024

What’s Really Happening with Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Loans

Given the precipitous decline in NYCB, many market observers are trying to gauge the extent of deterioration in ComRe books at Regional and Community Banks. Too many analysts are either focused on REIT performance measures or aggregate bank measures—neither of which provides reliable insight to banks’ balance sheets. REIT numbers don’t work because the underlying… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis
December 22, 2023

Cybiont’s 3Q23 Granular View of Bank Credit Quality

Summary of Current Credit Conditions Table 1 shows the level and trend of the stock of underperforming Total Loans over the past year for a consistent universe of 512 publicly traded banks. Chart 1 Credit remains benign, and over the past year, banks have been diligently charging off underperforming loans in order to maintain the… Continue reading

Commentary, Industry Analysis

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